NBA Moving Toward “3-2-1 Lottery” to Kill Off Tanking for Good

The NBA has had enough of teams losing on purpose. A major rule change is coming.

The league is finalising its “3-2-1 lottery” proposal — a sweeping reform to how draft odds are distributed that would punish the worst teams rather than reward them. Under the new system, the three teams with the worst records would only receive two lottery balls instead of three, with a 72% chance of falling outside the top five picks. No team could win the top spot in consecutive years, and no team could have a top-five pick in three straight drafts.

The lottery would expand to 16 teams, pulling in play-in losers. The system expires in 2029, leaving room to adjust.

Owners vote on May 28. If it passes, tanking for a franchise player becomes a much riskier strategy — and that’s exactly the point.